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Villanova Wildcats (75-1)
Because of a couple of early losses and a late slide, the defending national champions flew under the national radar in 2018-19. Nevertheless, Villanova won the Big East regular-season title and tourney.
The Wildcats still attempt three-pointers at a furious rate―third-highest in the country―but their tempo is a little slower. That’s a calculated effort to protect a younger-than-usual rotation, but it trims the sample size and leads to higher variance.
And when losing the battle on the boards, Villanova is just 5-8. Hot shooting can only carry the Wildcats so far, especiall since their efficiency from outside isn’t consistently great.
Iowa State Cyclones (100-1)
When they’re rolling, the Cyclones can pick apart the competition. They rank 35th in two-point percentage and 76th from beyond the arc, boasting KenPom‘s ninth-most efficient offense.
The concerns are numerous, though.
Iowa State is 0-7 when ceding a three-point clip of 40-plus percent, and five of those contests happened in February or March. Plus, per Hoop-Math.com, opponents shoot 65.7 percent at the rim―327th nationally. That’s in no small part because the Cyclones allow 30 percent of available offensive rebounds.
Reaching the Sweet 16 is doable thanks to the offense, but it’s improbable Iowa State will sustain a deep run.
Buffalo Bulls (150-1)
Buffalo is difficult to handle if the scoring attack gets to the rim. Not only do the Bulls play at the ninth-fastest tempo, per KenPom, but they also rank 20th nationally in two-point percentage. That helps mitigate an unspectacular three-point clip of 33.6.
However, defense kick-starts this offense. With at least 15 takeaways, Buffalo is 19-1 and has 14 double-digit wins. Below the mark, the Bulls are 11-2 with seven single-digit victories.
Protecting the ball limits turnovers, which limits Buffalo’s transition opportunities. If the Bulls can’t run, they’re vulnerable.
Maryland Terrapins (150-1)
Rebounding is an essential part of winning, but the battle of the boards is dramatically tied to Maryland’s identity this season.
On the positive side, the Terps rank sixth nationally with a 56.1 rate. When surpassing that average, they’re a sturdy 14-3. Below the mark, however, Maryland is a meager 9-7―which includes losses to Michigan twice and Michigan State once.
That strength means Maryland can dominate in the early rounds. It also suggests a tightly contested finish if Jalen Smith isn’t controlling the glass with Bruno Fernando.
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