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Daniel R. Patmore/Associated Press
As long as it’s not your team enduring a surprise knockout by a scrappy underdog, we can pretty much all agree the best part of March Madness is the Cinderella stories. The beauty of a single-elimination tournament lies in the unpredictability of each round; it’s why the NCAA men’s basketball tournament is unlike any other postseason in sports.
And it’s why we can’t stop watching.
While we could only hope that the 2019 tournament will see a bracket-busting performance as memorable as, say, the No. 16 UMBC Retrievers ousting the No. 1 Virginia Cavaliers last year—the first time a No. 16 seed ever accomplished that feat—there are still plenty of opportunities for sleepers to surprise us all in the first round and beyond.
When determining sleepers, any team projected to be seeded No. 6 or lower by ESPN Bracketology qualifies. Generally, teams seeded lower than No. 6 aren’t expected to make it far in the tournament. According to NCAA.com, three No. 6 seeds, three No. 7 seeds, five No. 8 seeds, one No. 9 seed, one No. 10 seed and four No. 11 seeds have ever advanced to the Final Four. A team seeded No. 12 or lower has never made it past the Elite Eight.
You might be tempted to pencil in some of the following teams to make it all the way to the Final Four in your bracket. But remember that while they have some bracket-busting potential in the first few rounds, it’s always safer to go with top-three seeds once you get that far into the tournament.
But until Selection Sunday tells us who those teams will be, let’s take a look at the teams with the best chances of busting a few brackets over the next couple of weeks.
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Rick Scuteri/Associated Press
Projected seed: No. 10
As things stand, the Sun Devils are hanging around in “last four bye” territory heading into Selection Sunday…and they’re surely giving the selection committee a headache as it tries to figure out what to make of them.
Arizona State impressed with several strong nonconference victories, including taking down then-No. 15 Mississippi State and No. 1 Kansas. The Sun Devils finished the regular season on a high note with a 72-64 win at Arizona and went into the Pac-12 conference tournament with their heads held high. But in overtime against Oregon on Friday night, they fell 79-75. So despite finishing their season 22-10 overall, they will have to wait for the selection committee to decide their fate.
As long as they get in—even if they are selected for a play-in game—they will be dangerous. These are the same Sun Devils who shocked the nation by defeating the Jayhawks in late December. There’s no reason junior guard Rob Edwards isn’t still capable of contributing double-digit points, and senior forward Zylan Cheatham continues to rack up assists and rebounds.
Things have to fall right for the Sun Devils, but the important thing is they showed this season that they can stand up to tough competition.
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Jamie Squire/Getty Images
Projected seed: No. 6
The Cyclones are making moves at just the right time, and it looks like the selection committee will reward them for it on Sunday. Iowa State looked dominant in the Big 12 tournament, toppling Baylor 83-66 in the quarterfinals and then putting away No. 15 Kansas State 63-59 on Friday. But the sweetest reward came on Saturday, when the Cyclones defeated No. 17 Kansas 78-66 for the Big 12 title.
This upswing after a late-season slump is in large part due to the stellar play of freshman guards Talen Horton-Tucker and Tyrese Haliburton, who have shown that playing on a bigger stage doesn’t faze them in the least. That will be important come the NCAA tournament, and it’s a big reason why Iowa State should be circled in whichever region it lands in.
Iowa State ranked as high as No. 17 in the AP Top 25 this year, and while it doesn’t have a national ranking on its resume now to sway the selection committee, its season continues to impress all the same. Although the Cyclones missed out on the Big Dance last year after six straight trips, their 77.4 points per game are making a statement, as is their No. 22 NET ranking.
Currently, the Cyclones project as a No. 6 seed. It’s easy to imagine them effortlessly putting away whichever No. 11 seed they match up against and making a Cinderella run into the later rounds.
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Mark Humphrey/Associated Press
Projected seed: No. 11
Florida came screaming back into the March Madness conversation on Friday after an impressive upset of No. 9 LSU in the SEC tournament. Needless to say, a team ranked in the Top 10 losing the first game of its conference tournament is national news this time of year, but don’t let LSU’s flop overshadow Florida’s triumph.
While the Gators had some impressive moments this season, including a win over then-No. 13 LSU in February, Friday’s victory was without a doubt their best of the year. And while one win doesn’t mean Florida will make it all the way to the Final Four, this is a team prepared to carry this momentum into the Big Dance. Every Gators starter logged double-digit points against the Tigers on Friday. Freshman guard Andrew Nembhard not only led the way with 20, but he also drained the game-winning three with one second remaining to secure the 76-73 win.
Now, rather than having a trip to Dayton and a First Four matchup hanging over them, Florida’s win over LSU should at the very least assure it an outright bid to the NCAA tournament. The Gators fell to Auburn in the SEC tournament semifinal on Saturday, and while there are no asterisks on the schedule, the no-foul call was controversial to say the least. Either way, with the season over, Florida has done all it can.
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Julio Cortez/Associated Press
Projected seed: No. 6
Marquette’s shot at the Big East title was squelched by Seton Hall on Friday in a surprise semifinals upset, but the loss doesn’t diminish what the Golden Eagles were able to accomplish this season.
If AP No. 23 Marquette does indeed earn a sixth seed in the NCAA tournament, it will be one of the biggest discrepancies between talent and seeding in the entire thing. Marquette has taken down some big dogs this season, including Kansas State, Wisconsin, Buffalo and Villanova, all of whom were ranked in the Top 15. The Golden Eagles’ strength of schedule ranks 35th, and they’ve gone 11-2 against nonconference foes.
The Golden Eagles carry a NET rating of 28 into Selection Sunday, with plenty of Quadrant 1 wins under their belts. With the No. 6 scorer in the nation, Markus Howard, who is averaging 25.0 points per game, and Sam Hauser, who is adding another 14.9 per outing, the Golden Eagles are set to show what they can do on the big stage. As a No. 6 seed, they could easily bust brackets on their tear through multiple rounds.
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Daniel R. Patmore/Associated Press
Projected seed: No. 12
It’s partially because the Racers earned their first-ever NCAA tournament automatic bid this week when they knocked off top-seeded Belmont to win the Ohio Valley Conference tournament. It’s largely because likely top-five NBA draft pick Ja Morant is one of the nation’s brightest stars this season. For those reasons and more, you’ve likely been hearing about Murray State nonstop. As they carry an 11-game win streak into the NCAA tournament, coach Matt McMahon’s squad is looking to make a statement.
Sure, Murray State’s strength of schedule was anything but intimidating this season; the Racers played only one Top 25 team, No. 7 Auburn, to whom they lost 93-88. But you can’t count this squad out as long as it’s being led by Morant, who dazzled with 36 points on 13-of-25 shooting and grabbed seven rebounds in the conference championship win. His teammates did less to help out, with no one adding more than 12 points.
But Morant has led the Racers in scoring in their last nine games, and even against the top programs in the country, there are very few teams that can hope to contain the 6’3″, silky-shooting point guard.
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David Becker/Getty Images
Projected seed: No. 7
It feels like a technicality that Nevada is included in this roundup; even though the Wolf Pack project as a No. 7 seed, they’re ranked 14th in the Top 25 and come into Selection Sunday with an impressive 23 NET ranking.
And in truth, if Nevada hadn’t fallen to San Diego State in the Mountain West semifinal, the Wolf Pack may have demanded a higher seed from the selection committee. But as things stand, this squad looks to be one of the most dangerous No. 7 seeds in the Big Dance.
For one, the Wolf Pack were without senior forward Jordan Caroline in the loss to SDSU. Caroline is frequently the team’s leading rebounder and a source of 17.3 points per game. That was a huge handicap for this squad, but it was the first game Caroline missed this season, thanks to an Achilles tendinitis flare-up.
When he’s in the lineup for the Wolf Pack in the NCAA tourney, this team will look a lot different than the one that fell to the Aztecs on Friday. With senior forward Caleb Martin putting up 19.2 points per game and junior guard Jazz Johnson adding 20-plus in two of his last four games, who could count this team out of winning a couple rounds of March Madness basketball?
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Streeter Lecka/Getty Images
Projected seed: No. 11
The selection committee has an interesting deliberation ahead of it when it contemplates NC State’s seeding. The Wolfpack are currently in play-in game territory after ending their season with a wholly unsurprising 76-56 loss to No. 2 Virginia in the ACC tournament. But while there are some holes one can poke in the Wolfpack’s NCAA tournament resume—they don’t have many Quadrant 1 wins, their nonconference strength of schedule is nothing impressive—this team not only deserves to be in the Big Dance but could also make some noise once it gets there.
It wasn’t that long ago the Wolfpack ranked No. 15 in the AP Top 25. Now, that was back when NC State boasted a 14-2 record, with the two losses coming against No. 22 Wisconsin and No. 12 North Carolina. In mid-December, NC State even beat No. 7 Auburn. Then, however, came a string of losses against ranked opponents—including three in a row to Virginia, Virginia Tech and North Carolina—that really hurt NC State’s resume (though it’s worth noting Virginia needed overtime to put the Wolfpack away).
After all of that, NC State still carries a 34 NET rating, and junior guard Markell Johnson is still capable of putting up 20-plus points per game (including 23 against Clemson). As long as the selection committee gives the Wolfpack a chance to play, they could surprise early in the tourney.
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Julio Cortez/Associated Press
Projected seed: No. 9
The Big East has been a traffic jam of teams vying for bids to the Big Dance this season, and a delicious weekend of conference play finally put all the puzzle pieces in place. One thing is for sure: Seton Hall is on the bubble no more thanks to recent and convincing wins over then-No. 16 Marquette, No. 23 Villanova, Georgetown and No. 23 Marquette.
The Pirates have faced their share of adversity lately, but it’s only served to season them for the task ahead. In Friday’s semifinal game, a litany of assessed fouls led to several ejections, and Marquette star Markus Howard had the opportunity to put the Pirates away at the buzzer. But his shot fell short, and Seton Hall survived to face Villanova in the title game. The Pirates didn’t go on to claim the title, falling 74-72 to the Wildcats, but their road into the NCAA tournament is already paved regardless.
One player who was, thankfully for the Pirates, not ejected was Myles Powell. The superstar junior guard has been lighting up the scoreboard for his team, to the tune of 22.9 points per game this season and 28.4 in his last five, when it has arguably mattered the most. The trio of Powell, Michael Nzei and Quincy McKnight have combined for 56 percent of the Pirates’ scoring this season. Look for them to go on a tear and play deep into March.
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Julio Cortez/Associated Press
Projected seed: No. 11
Speaking of the Big East, although St. John’s can’t pad its resume with any more wins in the conference tournament after being ousted by Marquette 86-54 on Thursday, the Red Storm look to be safely off the bubble.
St. John’s nonconference schedule wasn’t a gauntlet by any means, but staying in contention for the Big Dance in a conference as deep as the Big East is a feat for any team. The Red Storm impressed this season with wins over then-No. 16 Marquette, No. 13 Villanova and No. 10 Marquette again. Their NET rating of 72 is lower than they’d like, but they’ve made their case for their first NCAA tournament appearance since 2015. Now they await their seeding.
The tricky thing about St. John’s, a thing that could also easily help it play spoiler this month, is its inconsistency. The last time the Red Storm won two in a row was in mid-February, despite opening the season 12-0. But when they’ve looked good, they’ve looked really good, like when junior guard Mustapha Heron (14.9 PPG) put up 28 points in an overtime win over Butler or when Shamorie Ponds dropped 28 on No. 10 Marquette and went for 37 apiece against both Georgia Tech and Georgetown.
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Kathy Kmonicek/Associated Press
Projected seed: No. 7
One of the first teams to punch their ticket to the Big Dance thanks to an automatic bid earned as a result of clinching the Southern conference title, the Wofford Terriers walk into the NCAA tournament with their heads held high.
It’s true that Wofford didn’t walk the toughest of roads this season. The Terriers’ strength of schedule ranked 104th, and they faced just three ranked opponents, losing against all three. But Wofford showed the nation what it’s made of with a 20-game win streak to cap the season and will be rewarded with its fifth NCAA tournament appearance in program history (all in the last 10 years).
Coach Mike Young’s squad is carried by senior guard Fletcher Magee, who averages 20.5 points per game. Junior Nathan Hoover adds another 13.2, but he dropped 20 in the Terriers’ 70-58 drubbing of UNC Greensboro in the conference title game. Wofford has an incredibly impressive NET rating of 13; it wouldn’t be surprising to see the selection committee toss the Terriers a No. 6 seed in honor of their triumphs this season. Wherever they fit into the bigger picture, this is a team that could steamroll its way through the first couple of rounds.
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